The Tenfold Growth Strategy Paradox: Why Uganda’s Future Depends On Its Young Women

FILE PHOTO: Participants share their feedback at the “Community of Practice” workshop  at the Mastercard Foundation offices in Kampala, Uganda. The “Community of Practice” workshop featured partners working on the Young Africa Works Project and involved The Mastercard Foundation, Equity Bank Uganda, Financial Sector Deepening Uganda, Goal Uganda, Ripple Effect and Bank of Uganda.

COMMENT | ELECTINE OYAGA | Uganda stands at a critical juncture, facing what can only be described as a tenfold growth strategy paradox to expand the country’s GDP from nearly US$50 billion (2023) to US$500 billion (2040).

The policymakers have meticulously analyzed national budgets, debated monetary policy, and actively tapped into direct foreign investment. They have also crafted sophisticated strategies to harness our demographic dividend, recognizing that a youthful population is one of Africa’s most potent assets. Yet, amid these ambitious efforts, we continue to consistently underinvest in the single most catalytic, high-return driver of economic transformation already within grasp: young women.

As we mark this year’s International Women’s Day under the theme “Give to Gain”, we must confront a fundamental shift in perspective. This is not a call for handouts but a pathway to adopting smarter economics.

For too long, gender equality has been framed as a social issue, a matter best left to development partners and civil society. This framing is not just incomplete; it is economically flawed. The evidence is unequivocal: investing in young women is not an expense to be minimized, but one of the highest-yield investments a nation can make in its pursuit of accelerated and inclusive growth.

We must stop viewing the barriers young women face, such as limited land rights, unequal access to finance, and mobility constraints, as merely unfortunate social injustices. In economic terms, they are structural market failures. They distort resource allocation, suppress labor force productivity, and stifle enterprise growth. The consequence is not just inequality, but profound economic inefficiency. By systematically limiting the potential of half our population, we impose a self-inflicted drag on national output, silently eroding billions in unrealized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and creating a hidden tax on the entire economy.

The global prize for correcting this failure is immense. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that advancing women’s equality could add up to $28 trillion to global GDP.

For Uganda, on the cusp of a demographic surge, the stakes are existential. Our economic future hinges on fully integrating young women into the nation’s growth story.

Neglecting this cohort risks turning a potential demographic dividend into a debilitating liability.

With the drastic shifts of the global economy driven by automation and artificial intelligence are rapidly reshaping labor markets, this urgency has never been greater.

Without intentional and strategic intervention, the Fourth Industrial Revolution will not only level the playing field but deepen existing gender divides, embedding inequality into the very foundation of tomorrow’s economy.

This is not a challenge that government or philanthropy alone can solve. It is a strategic imperative demanding collaboration among multiple stakeholders, each with aligned self-interest and a shared recognition that the untapped potential of young people, especially women, is Africa’s most powerful growth asset.

It is this insight that continues to guide the work of development organizations like the Mastercard Foundation in Uganda. Through the Young Africa Works strategy, the foundation has committed to enabling 30 million young Africans, 70% of them women, to access dignified and fulfilling work by 2030. This target is not a quota but a deliberate economic bet on the highest-return investment available in the African economy.

But what does it take to translate this insight into tangible action in Uganda?

First, it requires moving beyond broad rhetoric about women’s empowerment and focusing on concrete strategies to build the talent pipeline for Uganda’s future economy.

For example, the Mastercard Foundation’s partnership with the Forum for African Women Educationalists (FAWE) Uganda, through the Higher Education Access Program (HEAP), directly addresses this gap.

By fast-tracking marginalized youth of which 76% are young women into universities with a strong emphasis on STEM, the HEAP program is cultivating a technical pipeline of future innovators, tech founders, and industry leaders equipped with the skills to propel Uganda’s science and technology sector into a competitive, 21st-century economy.

Second, it requires dismantling the broken structural systems that stifle enterprise. For entrepreneurs, ambition alone is meaningless without access to capital, and even the most brilliant business plans fail in markets that systematically exclude them.

Through the Accelerating Impact for Young Women (AIM) program, implemented in partnership with BRAC Uganda, the Mastercard Foundation demonstrates the impact of designing financial products around the lived realities of young women, rather than outdated banking norms. Similarly, the Hi-Innovator program, with the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) Uganda, goes beyond seed funding. It is reshaping the entrepreneurial ecosystem by de-risking women-led enterprises, unlocking access to capital, and correcting systemic market failures, thereby creating a robust and sustainable pipeline of competitive, women-led businesses across the country.

This clearly demonstrates that investing in young people is a direct source of national competitive advantage.

Uganda’s Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) must proactively remove the regulatory barriers that hinder women’s progress, embedding gender-focused economic policies at the heart of the National Development Plan. For the private sector, advancing women’s economic participation is not just goodwill but with intentionality it drives innovation, strengthens the workforce, and builds resilient supply chains by including women-led businesses. For investors, the case is equally compelling: supporting women in education, enterprise, and leadership delivers measurable, compounding returns that directly enhance the bottom line.

The theme for this year’s International Women’s Day, “Give to Gain”, challenges our conventional thinking. It asks us to redefine what “giving” truly means. In economic terms, it is about dismantling outdated structures, biased systems, and unconscious assumptions that suppress growth and placing women at the very center of economic activity. When a young woman gains access to dignified work, the impact ripples far beyond her income to building a stabilized household, keeping her children in school, and strengthening her family and community, with the end goal of contributing directly to national growth.

In a nutshell, the solution to Uganda’s growth paradox is clear. The growth asset is within reach, and the strategy is now known. The only question remaining for the country’s policymakers and thought leaders is: can we truly afford to keep this ultimate growth asset untapped?

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The writer is a Media and Communications Specialist at Digimark

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