The coming costs of America’s new war on its competition with China, its allies in the region and the world economy
THE LAST WORD | ANDREW M. MWENDA | I wrote in this column on December 19th last year, praising Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy. In it, the US president promised “flexible realism”. Contrary to previous American regimes, Trump’s NSS was clear: “We seek good relations and peaceful commercial relations with the nations of the world without imposing on them democratic or other social change that differs widely from their traditions and histories. We recognize and affirm that there is nothing inconsistent or hypocritical in acting according to such a realistic assessment or in maintaining good relations with countries whose governing systems and societies differ from ours even as we push like-minded friends to uphold our shared norms, furthering our interests as we do so.”
The ink had not dried on my article when the same Trump invaded Iran, claiming to see to liberate it from tyranny and theocracy. And he did this in alliance with the demonic and genocidal state of Israel (not that the state in the US is less demonic and genocidal). Clearly, I celebrated too early. The issue, it turns out, is not Trump but the NDA of the state in the USA and its embedded interests, especially the military-industrial complex. The state in the US always goes to war because its military industries have to sell arms to the government. And the US political system is also the most corrupt in the world. The legislature is captured by these vested, invested interests and is therefore inclined to always appropriate money for such adventures, which are often to the detriment of the country’s national interests.
The other factor about America is the embarrassing control of US foreign policy by the Israel lobby. A small outpost called Israel in the Middle East has such power over American foreign policy that defies all logic. The Israel lobby literally holds the state in America hostage to its interests. America has been in the Middle East fighting forever wars in the service of Israel. Most of these wars go against US and even Israeli interests. For Israel, this is because their national policy is now in the tight grip of demented psychopathic megalomaniacs committed to territorial expansion by ethnic cleansing and genocide. Rather than seek security through peaceful coexistence with their neighbours, the extreme right-wing regime in Israel believes security can only come from subjugation and humiliation of others.
However, the assault on Iran may prove much more difficult than America anticipated. Indeed, it may, even in the medium term, signal America’s exit from the Middle East. This is largely because the Iranians have been preparing for America’s and Israel’s invasion of their country for decades. Hence, they designed a strategy of horizontal escalation that is making America and her allies in the region pay a high price for that adventure. They have made sure that the theatres of this war are spread not just in the region but also in the rest of the world by imposing economic costs even to those who are far. Secondly, they want to prolong the duration of this war to bleed America and her allies in the region white.
The Iranians seem to have a four-layered strategy. First is to increase the costs of America’s invasion. They have done this by destroying all major American military bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, etc., which cost billions to build and, therefore, prove to the superpower that it is not invisible. The second is to impose high costs on America’s allies in the region by making them pay the price of hosting US military bases. All these countries thought that US bases would bring them security. Now Iran is demonstrating to them that an alliance with this “evil government” brings unnecessary costs and instability.
Second, countries like UAE, Oman, Qatar and, recently, Saudi Arabia, have built their economies as islands of stability in a volatile region. They have been diversifying their sources of revenue from oil and gas to tourism and major finance hubs, making themselves investment destinations and luxury resorts for the world’s rich and famous. Their airports have become major global transit points, and their airlines the largest carriers of passengers from all corners of the world. Their seaports are major logistics hubs for global trade. By bombing their air and seaports, Iran is now shattering this strategic positioning clearly with the aim of making them realise how costly their alliance with America is.
I am sure Iran is calculating that by targeting their economic positioning, it is also targeting their major sources of revenue. For cities like Dubai, this is a cost it cannot afford. Saudi Arabia has shut down its major oil refineries; Qatar has stopped production of gas; Bahrain has done similar. Iran has also closed the Straits of Harmuz, making the flow of oil from the region, which contributes 20% of global supplies, impossible now. And Iran does not need to sink 100 ships to make this happen. It only needs to sink one or two ships to scare ships, insurance companies and sailors to think twice before attempting to pass through that narrow path. Thus, even if America offers its navy to escort ships and gives reinsurance to ship owners, it will not solve this problem because sailors are not suicidal.
Didn’t America calculate these outcomes in advance? And what will it do now? It is unlikely that mighty America will count its losses and quit. Instead, it is most likely going to double down. Like in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, the American empire will be driven by hubris to escalate the war and bomb Iran into the stone age. However, regardless of how it defines victory, that success will remain elusive, and I predict successive US presidents, unable to face the consequences of retreat, will keep kicking the can down to their successors. We may be in this for the next ten years, and by the time America wakes up, its main rival, China, will be far ahead.
This brings me to my final point. Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Every American president since Barak Obama has recognized that America’s peer competitor is China, hence the need for Washington to pivot to Asia. America has failed to consistently make this move because it remains bogged down in minor conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, where there are no serious strategic interests to defend. What America is doing in Ukraine and Iran is a distraction from its principal aim, to contain China. Therefore, America is actually its own worst enemy.
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amwenda@ugindependent.co.ug
